IDC: 2015-2020 Mobile Devices Forecast (1Q16 Update)

The following information is derived based on IDC’s latest forecast data:

  • Smartphone growth in 2016 is only 3%, exceeding 1.48bln shipment. APAC still holds the majority share. However, only MEA reflects double-digit growth. LATAM might suffer from negative growth in 2016.
  • This year feature phone shipment is estimated to reach 468mln units, yearly decline 14%. Generally this segment is declining worldwide (esp. NA). Yet, MEA declines relatively slower than others. LATAM even shows some improvement in the future.
  • This year tablet shipment is expected to be about 180mln units, a near 10% decrease from 2015. The main cause is the rapid decline in LATAM. In the following years, other than APAC and LATAM, other regions show some apparent improved growth.
  • The market share ratio of slate and detachable is expected to be 8:2 in 2016. As slate is declining, while detachable is increasing with double-digit growth, this ratio would become 7:3 by 2020. Microsoft is growing with double-digit in the following years and will seize the market share of Apple iOS and Google Android in the future.
  • 7”-8” and 9”-10” (e.g. Apple iPad Air) are still mainstream, but 10”-11” (e.g. Microsoft Surface) presents some obvious growth.. Above 12” (e.g. Apple iPad Pro) grows rapidly yet the market size is relatively tiny. Wi-Fi version is still mainstream, but thanks to maturity of 4G, Wi-Fi / 4G version in the coming years will grow rapidly.

Please download the PDF version via this link. Thank you!

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